HOW IS GLOBAL WARMING AFFECTING LOCAL RECREATION?

by Graham Averill

You want a bleak picture of the world ravaged by global warming? Forget “An Inconvenient Truth.” Watch “Soylent Green,” the ‘70s sci-fi thriller starring Charlton Heston that depicts a 2022 New York city ravaged by global warming. Al Gore may have melting ice caps, but Charlton Heston has us eating people in the form of green protein bars.

“Soylent Green” may be fiction, but federally enforced cannibalism doesn't seem like too much of a stretch given mankind's ability to adapt for better or worse. When the world gets hotter and our ecosystem dies because the atmosphere is so inhospitable, most Americans will simply stay inside more. We’ll watch a lot of reality programs. Our baseball games will all be played inside domes. We’ll eat genetically engineered food and life will go on in our climate-controlled, air-purified futuristic bubbles. Golf will go digital, video gamers won’t even notice a difference, but what about the rest of us? What about the less sedentary contingent of the American public that need to get outside and play? How will climate change affect the world of outdoor recreation? What’s going to happen to our favorite hikes when the average temperature is 112? Will there still be rivers to kayak? Will we all be skiing in artificial domes in 50 years? Forget population control and green power bars made of people, what does the future of outdoor sports look like in a world ravaged by climate change?

As it turns out, the future for outdoor adventure is almost as bleak as the future depicted in “Soylent Green.” From surfers to snowboarders, we can all expect some changes to our favorite outdoor pastimes in the very near future. Some of those changes have already begun.

“We’re just now starting to see the beginning affects of global warming in certain places like the Arctic and out West,” says Virginia Kramer with the Sierra Club. “You can look at the declining snow pack out West and the wildfires and the drying of the wetlands to get a picture of what it’s going to be like for the rest of the country in the future.”

THE FUTURE IS NOW

Nineteen of the 20 hottest years in recorded history have occurred since 1980. The ten hottest years on record have occurred since 1990. At press time, the largest forest fire in Georgia’s history is burning in the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge. Over the last 50 years, the average length of the Southern snow season has decreased by four days regionally. Precipitation has actually increased, but mostly due to intense events that have caused flooding. The U.S. experienced 42 weather-related disasters over the last 20 years that resulted in $1 billion or more in damage-23 of those occurred right here in the Southeast, mostly as floods or hurricanes. Out west, Montana’s Glacier National Park has only 27 glaciers today. In 1850, they had 150. The largest glaciers in the park are only 28% of their previous size. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association in Boulder, there is absolutely no debate whether or not human activity is increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

“The most authoritative voice on the matter, the International Panel on Climate Change, has come out and said we’re already seeing the affects of global warming,” says Julie Bovey with the National Resource Defense Coalition. “Weather is cyclical and some things can be attributed to smaller fluctuations in weather patterns, but when you start seeing a pattern of changes earlier and earlier, you can attribute that to a larger issue.”

No Snow

The current weather patterns have caused many people to worry about the viability of outdoor sports 50 years from now, particularly in the snowsports world. Bovey is working with the National Ski Area Association on the “Keep Winter Cool” campaign, which raises awareness of global warming threats while also encouraging ski resorts to change their own energy practices on the hill.

“The ski industry has a unique understanding of how global warming will affect us,” Bovey says. “Sports like skiing and snowboarding are in real jeopardy.”

Consider the snow sports industry the “canary in the coal mine” for how global warming will affect outdoor sports. Snowsports are hit the earliest and the hardest. A U.N. Environmental Program report released last winter shows many low altitude ski resorts in Canada and Europe are already facing serious economic challenges. A number of professional races were cancelled or moved during the 2006-2007 season due to a lack of snow. One resort hosting a race resorted to flying the snow in by helicopter. Meanwhile, the glaciers that pros train on throughout the year are getting smaller and smaller. And these could be the last “good” ski seasons ever.

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report estimates that global temperatures will rise between 2.5 and 10 degrees by 2100. The difference of a few degrees can have a huge impact on the snow season. In New Hampshire, winter recreation provides 10% of the state’s economy. According to a report performed by the Carbon Coalition, if the weather increases a few degrees as projected in New Hampshire by the middle of the century, the snow cover days in the White Mountains will decrease by 20 percent. In dollars, the snow decrease will mean the state of New Hampshire will lose $13 million a month in snow tourism dollars.

According to the IPCC report, skiing in the Southeast could be a thing of the past altogether. The report shows global warming could limit skiing to mountains with a base elevation of 5,000 feet or greater. The Southeast has 15 ski resorts, none of which have a base elevation of 5,000 feet.

“Forget about backcountry snow sports in the future,” Bovey says. “Even the places that rely on making snow will have trouble. You can’t make snow if it’s not cold enough.”

It’s a fact that most Southern skiers have been keenly aware of in the last few years, which have comprised some of the worst snow seasons in recent history. In recent years, most Southern resorts reported snowfall well below their yearly average. Many resorts have repeatedly struggled to open by the cherished holiday season and most have had trouble keeping snow on their trails due to unusually long periods of high temperatures throughout recent winters. During the 2006-2007 season, Snowshoe, which receives the lion’s share of Southern snow, had a poor early season followed by normal snowfall during January, February, and March for a total of 130 inches of fluffy. Their average snowfall is 180 inches.

“Winter is critical to our survival, so global warming is a concern,” says Brad Larson, public relations officer for Snowshoe Resort. That’s the party line for most resorts across the country, though some are taking a more proactive approach to the issue than others. Seventy ski resorts are involved with the “Keep Winter Cool” campaign, with involvement ranging from distributing information about climate change to broadcasting info-mercials to transforming their infrastructure to a clean energy model. Aspen is perhaps the most aggressive of the resorts, filling its snowcats with biodiesel, running motion sensor coke machines, and offsetting its entire electrical use with wind credits.

Out of the 15 resorts operating in the Southeast, only four are part of the Keep Winter Cool Campaign, and those four report only limited involvement.

“We distribute some of the printed material about global warming, but we don’t take it much further than that,’ says Larsen of Snowshoe, the largest resort in the region. “I’m not a climatologist, but year to year, we see snowfall fluctuations. We have good years and we have lean years.”

Bovey says that sort of response is typical for Southern resorts. “Some ski areas are being proactive and true environmental stewards. There are still some though that are abysmal. In the resorts in the Southeast, I’m not aware of any progressive energy saving programs.”

HOT WATER

Climate change is not strictly a winter recreationist's concern. American Whitewater is part of the Stop Global Warming online march on Washington and is currently looking at how climate change will impact the free flowing rivers that kayakers love.

“We’re just getting our head around this stuff right now,” says Mark Singleton, executive director of American Whitewater. “People need to understand this issue, particularly kayakers, because we use these rivers and recognize their value. As a group, we need to be acutely aware of the effects of global warming.”

For American rivers, the outlook is almost as bleak as the future of snowsports. Most boaters are already seeing changes in their beloved sport. The boating season out West has been severely affected by the loss of snow pack in recent years. Snow pack, which acts as a natural reservoir of precipitation that falls during winter, is melting far sooner than normal.

“Snow pack usually starts melting in May or June, but with the increase in temperatures, you get a reduction of snow pack and a complete disruption of the melting patterns,” Singleton says. “What we saw this year is the peak spring run off in the West starting a month earlier than it usually does and the river levels declining faster than usual. There’s a real significant shift. We’re getting more base flows through the winter, an earlier run off, and much drier summers.”

The drier summers are what concern most boaters in the Southeast. The IPCC report shows rainfall will increase up to 20 percent in wet regions, while decreasing 20 percent in arid regions. Models show annual rainfall will actually remain normal for the Southeast, but most of the precipitation will come in large storms.

“They’re predicting an increase in tropical storm activity," Singleton says. "We’re expecting more powerful storms followed by sharper declines in rainfall and longer periods of drought.”

It’s a pattern that Southern boaters are already noticing. Ben Hayes is a Chattanooga paddler who organizes the annual Total Vertical Feet contest that puts creek boaters on the river throughout the month of March. “This is the time of year where you used to have guaranteed rain, but we’re behind 25 inches of rain over the last few years. That’s a lot of boating days down the drain.”

Singleton says the Total Vertical Feet contest is the perfect example of how global warming is affecting kayaking. “If you would have done that contest in the ‘90s, it would have been a completely different ball game because you would have had more consistent flows throughout the traditional creek boating season. Now, the storms are more sporadic and the flows are more sporadic. Look at your standard creek runs back in the early ‘90s. Creeks like Wilson and Tellico had solid base levels. On the Tellico, you could paddle 50-60 days a year. That number of days has been significantly reduced.”

And it’s only going to get worse. The IPCC report shows a 10 percent decline in summer stream flows during the Southeast summer months in upcoming years. As for the ecosystems that thrive within the rivers, the toll will be even greater. The decline in summer flows will result in higher fish kills and poorer water quality. The drier summers will also increase the demand for irrigation reservoirs, which will further tax our already shrinking fresh water supplies. And the fish swimming inside the streams? Say your farewells to cold-water species now.

“The warming temperatures will affect stream temperatures and fish habitat,” says Virginia Kramer with the Sierra Club. “In the Southern Appalachians, 50 to 97 percent of the native trout populations are expected to disappear.”

SPACE INVADERS

The increased health risk is just one reason to keep you off the trails in the near future. You also have to consider the rapidly changing landscape that's trying to adapt to the higher temperatures. A recent report from the EPA paints a discouraging picture of the future of our forests. “As species migrate in response to climate variability, the forests may no longer be able to support the flora and fauna that now reside there,” according to the report.

Essentially, as climate change affects ecosystems, invasive species move in, smothering the native plants that once thrived. According to “Habitats at Risk,” a study performed by the World Wildlife Fund, “global warming will filter out species that are not highly mobile and favor a less diverse, more weedy vegetation and ecosystems that are dominated by pioneer species, invasive species, and others with high dispersal capabilities.”

Imagine a forest consumed by kudzu. According to the National Parks Conservation Association, national parks are at the greatest risk because they are usually “island" forests that are often chosen because they represent the last of their particular ecosystem. Already, invasive species reportedly crowd 2.6 million acres within the national park system. The Great Smoky Mountains National Park is labeled the haziest park in the country, with registered ozone levels high enough to damage human and plant life. In the Shenandoah National Park, 1,400 plant species are threatened by acid rain and ozone.

“You can already see the change in certain species because of the rising temperatures,” says Bovey with the National Resource Defence Coalition. “The maple trees in Vermont are struggling. You’re seeing southern species of plants moving northward. Already, the flora and fauna that make up our landscape is changing.”

When you look at the facts sandwiched together, “Soylent Green” looks less like a ‘70s sci-fi flick, and more like a documentary ahead of its time. The future is indeed bleak and depressing, but no one should be more aware of the effects of global warming than outdoor recreationists, Not only do we have the most to lose, but we’re often on the front lines of the damage, seeing the often overlooked tragedies of environmental neglect first hand.

“Part of the role outdoor people play is they keep track of the seasons,” Bovey says. “They are a cultural clock, and that clock is being thrown off by global warming.” •

Unsafe to Breathe

The good news is that the mountains themselves will still be there in one form or another. That’s not going to change. You’re just not going to want to hike, bike, or run on them. Michigan State University recently published a paper titled “The Implications of Climate Change on Outdoor Recreation,” which essentially took existing climate change models and applied that research to trends in tourism. The study suggests there will be a shift in outdoor tourism because of the increasing heat and how those rising temperatures affect comfort levels. Tourists will move away from the Southeast as temperatures rise, and into other regions of the country, but even that shift will be temporary. “The summer season in the mid-Atlantic, in New England, and eventually even on the Pacific Coast, will gradually become too hot for comfort,” according to the paper. “By the 2050’s, Anchorage may, from a climate perspective, be a more pleasant place to spend the month of August.”

But that’s just comfort level. Give us a full Camelbak and a wicking t-shirt and we’ll hike through the Sahara in August, right? It turns out the real trouble with global warming and the land sports we love has to do with the health impacts. Currently, 120 million people live in areas where air is unhealthy and thirty percent of childhood asthma is due to environmental exposures, according to the EPA, which tracks unhealthy air days in any given county in the country. According to the EPA, the hazardous effects of air pollution are compounded for active people-hikers and bikers and runners. You. For example, in 2006, Rowan County, N.C. had 0 unhealthy air days for the general public. But for the active outdoors population, there were 12 unhealthy air days in Rowan County during the same year.

“Just being outside more puts you at greater risk,” says Elise Miller, who organizes the Run for Clean Air 5K for the East Tennessee Clean Fuels Coalition. “Someone that’s watching TV on their couch all the time isn’t going to be affected as much by the particulate matter as someone who’s hiking outside all the time.”

Health problems associated with air pollution are even worse in the Southeast, where power plants contribute over 520 million tons of carbon dioxide annually. Six Southeastern states rank in the top 15 worst polluted states in the nation for carbon dioxide emissions, according to the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy. Those smog levels will only increase as the temperature rises. Heat contributes to the formation of ozone, which causes an inflammation of the lung tissue and reduced lung capacity. The results can be increased lung cancer mortality and the widespread development of asthma, all of which will be compounded as global warming increases.